Though is not clear yet when the war in Ukraine will end, there is a point of clarity about who are benefitting most from the geopolitical shifts impacted by the war. They are China, India and the United States.
By
KRIS MADA
·5 minutes read
BOBYLYOV/SPUTNIK/AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to China's President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit in Samarkand on September 16, 2022.
Referring to Europe as the core of the Western security architecture, International Institute for Strategic Studies director general John Chipman says the Ukraine war had forced the US and its allies to reconsider their security policy priorities. Until December 2021, Washington and its allies had been focusing on the Indo-Pacific before Russia's attack on Ukraine prompted them to shift the focus.
The US’ shift in focus because of the war in Ukraine was China's first victory. "Inevitably, the end of the war will leave Russia and Europe weakened and worn down, while the two big winners from this situation will be the US and China," France-based FMES Research Institute chairman Pierre Razoux said.
A poll conducted by the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusok Ishak Institute found that 53.5 percent of respondents were unsure of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), while 59 percent of respondents considered China to be the main economic power in Southeast Asia.
The war has made Russia increasingly dependent on China. "Russia is not in a position to negotiate with China, which will take whatever it wants from Russia without giving Russia what it wants," French economist and sanctions expert Agathe Demarais said.
According to Razoux, Russia is trying to reduce its dependence on China, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov making trips to African, Asian and Latin American countries as part of Moscow's efforts to diversify its geopolitical, economic and strategic ties.
Its vast nuclear arsenal, which is far larger than China’s, gives Russia bargaining power and stops the country from being completely dependent on China.
Russia is not in a position to negotiate with China, which will take whatever it wants from Russia without giving Russia what it wants.
However, the war in Ukraine has left China with another advantage, Beijing procuring energy at discounted prices from Russia. Energy Aspects, which is an energy business consultancy institution, estimates that China will import up to 2.2 million barrels of oil per day from Russia in 2023.
As the US and its allies shun oil, gas and coal from Russia, China has jumped at purchasing these energy sources. Not only does China get discounted prices, some of these commodities are also paid in its currency system of renminbi, thus Beijing does not have to dig deep into the coffer of foreign exchange reserves.
AFP/MONEY SHARMA
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on December 6, 2021.
India’s role
India has also gained cheap energy from Russia because of the US and its allies’ boycott. A Nikkei report on Friday (17/2) showed that India's imports from Russia had soared from US$7.7 billion in January-October 2021 to $37.3 billion in January-October 2022. "India buys lots of crude oil, converts it into fuel, and sells it," India's Trade Minister Sunil Barthwal said.
Being a crude oil importer, India's fuel exports have soared, earning it $78.5 billion in April 2022-January 2023, compared with $50.7 billion in the correspondent 2021-2022 period. Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Russia's oil exports to India jumped 70 percent throughout January. New Delhi is simply ignoring calls from the US and its allies to stop importing energy from Russia.
India buys lots of crude oil, converts it into fuel, and sells it.
Business consulting firm Kpler says that India and China are to blame for the US and allies' sanctions on Russian energy commodities being less effective. "Russia can send oil via tankers to India or China," Kpler’s researcher Viktor Katona said.
Oslo-based independent energy research and business intelligence company Rystad, and several other institutions, has concluded that the countries that are imposing sanctions on Moscow end up buying Russian oil via India.
US advantage
Not only China and India have capitalized on the ongoing situation. As Razoux mentioned, the US has appeared to be mostly benefitting from supporting Ukraine compared with its allies. The boycott on Russian energy commodities has allowed US natural gas and oil to enter the European market at far higher prices than Russia’s.
Trita Parsi, a lecturer at Georgetown University, said that some parties in US objected to the billions of US dollars that Washington gave to Kyiv. In fact, the US reaped economic windfall from the war.
Until December 2021, the US was desperately trying to protect the integrity and relevance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with proxy members in Europe objecting to increasing their defense budget. The US spends a lot of money on NATO operations in Europe.
The Russian attack has seen NATO members in Europe immediately increasing their defense spending, a portion of which is used to import weapons from the US. Chatham House researcher Timothy Ash said Washington's assistance to Kyiv was a very profitable type of investment.
Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Ukraine war would make it difficult for Russia to challenge the US in the very long term. It would take Russia years to recover its military and economy.
Since World War II ended, one of the focuses of US foreign policy has been to outweigh Russia. Having held the upper hands toward the end of the Cold War, Washington is now succeeding again in rivalries through the war in Ukraine. (AFP/REUTERS)
