Last week, a former chairman of a major political party said, “Only God knows if someone will become president or not.”
Human beings can make plans, but the final decision is up to God. This was the opinion that former chairman of a major political party expressed when asked who would win the 2024 presidential election during the launch of a biography on Nafsiah Mboi, Indonesia’s health minister from 2012-2014.
Despite his extensive experience as a senior politician, he did not want to give a name. To illustrate, several surveys, including independent polls conducted by Kompas Research & Development (Kompas Litbang), have tried to gauge public opinion, because it is the people who will vote in the 2024 election.
> There's Still Opportunity to Gain More Widespread Support
> Political Party Electability Volatility
According to the results of the Kompas Litbang survey conducted from 26 May-4 June 2022, the three potential nominees with the highest electability rates have not changed. Prabowo Subianto continues to lead with 25.3 percent, followed by Ganjar Pranowo with 22 percent, while Anies Baswedan ranks third with 12.6 percent.
Other names have also emerged in the list of potential candidates, though only two figures saw an increase in their electability rates, namely Ridwan Kamil and Erick Thohir.
Of course, there is still time for change. A figure may be able to increase their electability if they make hard enough efforts. However, for those figures who are not part of well-known political parties, their progress in the contest will depend on the party that is backs them, no matter how much work they do.
The results of this survey do not intent to simplify the elections, an event which is far from simple. We understand that there might be popular presidential or vice-presidential nominees who end up biting their fingernails for not being awarded a ticket. According to the 2024 election schedule, we will only be sure by October-November 2023.
New winning strategies can be devised, which are prepared not only by presidential and vice-presidential candidates, but also by their parties.
However, if some part of the people’s voting behavior is known, political parties or anyone who plans to compete in the presidential race can be better prepared. New winning strategies can be devised, which are prepared not only by presidential and vice-presidential candidates, but also by their parties.
On the other hand, it may also be time for parties to be more realistic. Even big parties need to be realistic about backing a figure the people do not want. They should also remember that as election day draws nearer, they must execute their strategies immediately.
From past experiences, including prior legislative and presidential elections, they must not ignore the fact that vox populi, vox dei: “The voice of the people is the voice of God.”
(This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia)